• Haahr Kirkeby posted an update 3 days, 14 hours ago

    How does emigration affect fertility in the country of origin? We address this question by estimating counterfactual fertility during the Great Recession in order to understand what the effect of the recession on fertility would be in the absence of emigration. Between 2009 and 2014, Southern European countries suffered from harsh economic instability, which triggered a sharp drop in fertility and a spike in emigration. We focus on Italy, exploiting the richness of the Italian Administrative Registry of Italians Residing Abroad (AIRE), which records information about all Italian citizens moving their residence abroad, as well as Italian birth records. Using an instrumental variable approach, which helps overcome endogeneity issues in the fertility-migration relationship, we find a positive impact of emigration on the total fertility rate at the Italian province level. This result suggests that emigrants are selected among those individuals who have a lower risk of having children. Therefore, in the absence of emigration, counterfactual fertility would have been lower than it actually is. Such a positive effect of out-migration on fertility in the area of origin could thereby lead to an underestimation of the effect of the recession on fertility.Married mothers who relocate are less likely to be employed after an interstate move than married childless women and nonmobile mothers. Here, we ask whether moving to a state with more expensive childcare is associated with lower odds of maternal employment among mothers who had been employed prior to relocation. We use hierarchical binomial logistic regression models, combining data from the 2015 American Community Survey five-year sample and state-level childcare costs to assess married mothers’ employment following an interstate move, controlling for states’ economic conditions. We show that employment odds for married mothers were about 42% lower than those for childless married women in the year following a move. Married mothers who moved to more expensive childcare states had odds of employment that were 18% lower than those of married mothers who moved to less expensive childcare states, showing that childcare accessibility shapes mothers’ employment decisions even among those with stronger labor force attachment. Moving back to respondents’ or their spouses’ state of birth and moving to states with more favorable economic conditions improved odds of employment as well. Overall, we show that moving to states with fewer childcare barriers is associated with higher levels of maternal employment, partly mitigating the negative labor market effects of interstate migration.More married couples today consist of two high-earning or two low-earning partners (i.e., earnings homogamy), which leads to greater earnings inequality in married-couple families. Surprisingly few studies have examined this relationship by earnings level, leaving open the question of whether the increase in earnings homogamy at each level of earnings contributes equally to between-couple earnings inequality. I address this question using data on urban China during 1988-2013. Changes in earnings homogamy account for 6% to 11% of the increase in between-couple inequality, but importantly, decomposition reveals that 57% to 68% of the overall impact is driven by the growing earnings homogamy among the top 20% of husbands and their wives. I reach the same finding by replicating the analyses using data from the United States. Two explanations account for this finding (1) earnings homogamy has increased more among high earners; and (2) all else being equal, increases among high earners are mechanically more influential in shaping the level of between-couple inequality. These findings have important theoretical and policy implications.Residential and school segregation have historically mirrored each other, with school segregation seen as simply reflecting residential patterns given neighborhood-based school assignment policy. We argue that the relationship is circular, such that school options also influence residential outcomes. We hypothesize that the expansion of charter schools could simultaneously lead to an increase in school segregation and a decrease in residential segregation. We examine what happens when neighborhood and school options are decoupled via public school choice in the form of charter schools using data from the census and the Common Core of Data on a national sample of more than 1,500 metropolitan districts. We find that Black-White school segregation increased and residential segregation declined in response to increases in the charter enrollment share from 2000 to 2010. Lenvatinib clinical trial In districts with charter schools, the average increase in the charter enrollment share corresponded to a 12% increase in school segregation and 2% decline in residential segregation. We find no relationship between charter school expansion and school segregation between White and Hispanic students, perhaps because Hispanic students attend more racially diverse charters than White or Black students. White-Hispanic residential segregation declined as charter enrollment increased. Our results demonstrate that educational policy is consequential for both school and neighborhood population processes. When these two contexts are decoupled via public school choice, school and neighborhood segregation patterns move in opposite directions, rather than mirroring each other. Our findings also provide a cautionary lesson for unfettered expansion of choice without integration imperatives.Adopting a multistate life table approach, this study estimates number of years the very old in China expect to live in an independent living arrangement (alone or with spouse only)-an estimate we term “independent living life expectancy” (ILLE)-as opposed to in coresidence with adult children or others. We also estimate how ILLE and proportion of total life expectancy (TLE) residing independently has changed over time. The backdrop for this study is a society experiencing both increasing longevity and social changes that influence the tendency to live in an independent living arrangement. The study concentrates on assessing whether changes in ILLE match or surpass gains in TLE experienced by oldest-old Chinese adults. Data are from the 2002-2014 Chinese Longitudinal Healthy Longevity Survey, and estimation is conducted using the Stochastic Population Analysis for Complex Events software. Results suggest that on balance, gains in ILLE are proportionately greater than gains in TLE, indicating an expansion of ILLE for most Chinese elders.